Agrohub has conducted the first wave of its study on the efficiency and performance of key crop production in the 2025 season. According to the analysis, forecast EBITDA stands at $410/ha. The study involved 10 agricultural holdings with a combined land bank of 1.5 million hectares.

2025 Forecast EBITDA: Close to Last Year’s Level

Based on the results of the 2025 season, forecast EBITDA stands at $410/ha.

For comparison, the forecast for the 2024 season at the same stage was $402/ha, while actual EBITDA after the completion of 2024 crop sales reached $446/ha. The current forecast remains close to last year’s level and reflects the ability of agricultural production to maintain profitability amid changing market conditions.

Forecast EBITDA is an estimate of expected profitability per hectare. It is calculated using both actual sales prices for products already sold and forecast prices for the remaining volumes. As part of the harvest had not yet been sold at the time of data collection, this figure serves as an indicator of the season’s current performance and may change depending on market dynamics.

In the current season, the overall pace of crop sales is slower than at the same point last year. The highest share of sales was recorded for winter wheat at 72%, while for corn and soybeans, the share sold at the time of data collection — in early February 2026 — stood at 32% and 35%, respectively. This increases the weight of the forecast component in the EBITDA calculation.

Crop Structure and Key Drivers of Performance

Among the companies participating in the study, corn accounts for the largest share of planted area at 31%. It is followed by winter wheat at 24%, soybeans at 18%, sunflower at 16%, winter rapeseed at 10%, and winter barley at around 1%.

According to the study, the cost base did not undergo any sharp changes in the 2025 season. The most notable fluctuations were recorded in third-party services, labour costs and land rent. Moderate changes were observed for individual crops, but overall the cost structure remained under control.

For corn, the increase in variable costs was partly associated with post-harvest processing, primarily drying. For wheat, post-harvest processing costs were minimal due to the low moisture content of the grain. As a result, the impact of costs on EBITDA remains relatively limited compared with price-related factors.

Five-Year Average EBITDA

Agrohub also analysed the indicator over a longer time horizon. The average EBITDA over the past five years stands at $388/ha. This figure includes the final results for the 2021–2024 seasons as well as the forecast for the 2025 season.

This longer-term perspective makes it possible to assess the resilience of agricultural production in Ukraine under different market scenarios — from favourable years to periods marked by wartime disruption, logistics constraints and price volatility. The average EBITDA remains positive, indicating the sector’s ability to maintain economic efficiency over the long term.

“The forecast EBITDA for the 2025 season shows that agricultural production in Ukraine remains resilient even in a challenging market environment. Today, results depend significantly on price dynamics and the pace of sales, while the quality of operational management and technological discipline also play a decisive role. Looking at the five-year period, we can see that agribusiness continues to operate profitably despite instability and external constraints,” comments Oksana Bobrova, Head of Agrohub Benchmarking.

Data on the efficiency and profitability of crop production in the 2025 season are based on an Agrohub study conducted among 10 Ukrainian agricultural holdings with a combined land bank of 1.5 million hectares in January–February 2026. The analysis covers six crops: winter wheat, corn, sunflower, soybeans, winter rapeseed and winter barley.