Despite the war-related discount, labour shortages, climate change and significant regional differences in yields, the profitability of Ukraine’s agricultural sector stabilised in 2025 at around the level of the previous season. This is shown by the results of a joint study by Agrohub and UCAB. At the same time, current challenges require increasingly precise decision-making and rapid adaptation, while pressure on producers’ margins is expected to intensify in the years ahead.

Four key challenges of the season

For agricultural producers, the war continues to affect both sales economics and day-to-day operations. On the one hand, it puts downward pressure on product prices through higher logistics, insurance and freight costs, as well as expenses caused by vessel downtime and delays, port congestion and other disruptions. On the other hand, it increases the cost of key imported inputs, including fuel and fertilisers, due to changes in supply geography, more expensive delivery and more complex domestic logistics.

The total war-related price discount for Ukrainian agriculture in 2025 is estimated at $100–150/ha. It has declined compared with the first years of the full-scale invasion, but its future dynamics will depend on the course of the war and the stability of export corridors. Recent attacks on Black Sea port infrastructure and vessels show that this factor remains one of the most sensitive for exports, logistics and the final price received by producers.

The war also creates operational risks. Border regions operated under persistent security pressure, blackouts complicated the operation of grain elevators, dryers and production processes, while electronic warfare systems affected GPS stability and required rapid adaptation of field operations.

The second challenge is climate instability. The season combined drought, frosts, abnormal heat and excessive rainfall. This led to delayed harvesting, high grain moisture levels, additional post-harvest processing costs and greater difficulty in forecasting results.

Climate risks were unevenly distributed, which became the third challenge. Eastern regions operated under moisture deficits and increased heat stress, while western regions faced excessive moisture, high grain moisture content and harvest delays. These differences are already directly affecting crop economics. For example, in 2025, adjusted corn yield reached 10.4 t/ha in the north-western macro-region compared with 5.3 t/ha in the east, while winter wheat yielded 8.0 t/ha in the western macro-region versus 3.9 t/ha in the east.

The fourth systemic challenge was the labour shortage. It has ceased to be a seasonal problem and has become a permanent operational factor. Field personnel remain the most vulnerable category, with staff shortages affecting the timing, quality and cost of field operations.

Labour pressure is already clearly reflected in costs. The share of labour costs in total production expenses has been increasing since the 2024 season: in 2025, it reached 14.3%, compared with 10.7% in 2023. During the 2023–2025 seasons, labour costs at agricultural companies increased by approximately 20% annually, outpacing Ukraine’s annual inflation rate.

In response, companies are combining several approaches: raising salaries, introducing transparent bonus systems, automating processes, developing corporate training, expanding employee benefits and looking for new sources of talent. Support for mobilised employees and veterans is also becoming a separate area of the HR function.

Profitability and cost dynamics

Despite these challenges, the profitability of agricultural production stabilised in 2025 at approximately the level of the previous season. Forecast EBITDA for the 2025 season stands at $410/ha, close to the $446/ha recorded in 2024. By comparison, EBITDA amounted to $48/ha in 2022 and $129/ha in 2023.

The cost base remained broadly under control in the 2025 season. The most significant changes included lower fertiliser costs and higher spending on third-party services, labour, administrative expenses and land rent. For most crops, fixed costs increased, while variable costs remained relatively stable. Corn was the exception: due to high moisture levels and the associated drying and post-harvest processing costs, total production costs increased by 29%.

One of the report’s key conclusions is that no crop maintains a consistent leadership position in terms of margin or return on working capital. Crop rankings change from season to season, increasing the importance of a flexible portfolio approach and data-driven crop rotation planning.

In 2025, sunflower remained the most profitable crop, with a return on working capital (ROWC) of 94%, while corn fell from 60% in 2024 to 25% in 2025 due to high moisture levels and the related costs.

According to study participants, margin pressure in the coming years will be intensified by rising land costs, labour shortages and adaptation to EU standards. Companies are already responding through more detailed planning of costs, technologies and crop rotations, broader use of precision agriculture, GPS and automation, investment in teams, climate risk management and data-driven decision-making.

“The 2025 season showed that Ukrainian agriculture is gradually emerging from the shock of 2022–2023 and moving into a stabilisation phase. At the same time, stabilisation does not mean a return to growth driven primarily by favourable market conditions. The next stage of the sector’s development will depend on how precisely companies manage costs, crop rotations, technologies, teams and data. Today, the resilience of the agricultural sector is measured not by record results, but by the ability to systematically protect margins and make better-informed decisions,” says Yuliya Poroshenko, Founder and CEO of Agrohub.

“Ukraine’s agricultural sector is already operating in a new reality, where competitiveness is determined not only by yields or global prices, but also by the ability to adapt quickly to war-related risks, climate change, labour shortages and new requirements of the European market. This is why high-quality analytics and data are becoming some of the key tools for effective management decision-making. The Agrohub Annual Insights study helps businesses objectively assess market trends, benchmark their own performance and prepare more effectively for the challenges of the coming seasons,” said Oleh Khomenko, Director General of UCAB.

Background

Agrohub Annual Insights is an analytical report on the 2025 production season, prepared by Agrohub jointly with UCAB between April and June 2026. The sample comprises large and medium-sized agricultural holdings in Ukraine with a combined land bank of approximately 2 million hectares. All indicators are presented as weighted averages calculated using statistical approaches within the respective sample. The study covers six major crops: winter wheat, winter rapeseed, winter barley, sunflower, corn and soybeans.

The public version of the report is available here: https://agrohub.ua/research/agrohub-annual-insights-2025-26-public-edition/